“Could global warming be detected?” The 25-year record (2000-2024) of Reefcheck Kushimoto, Wakayama, Japan

ReefCheck Kushimoto Team - Sangodai, Kushimoto, Wakayama 649-3514, Japan
Corresponding author: K. Nomura - E-mail: alpheus.nomura@nifty.com - Communicated by Takashi Nakamura (Editor-in-Chief)

Note: Published in Japan Coral Reef Society 2025, the original English abstract is attached below. The following parts of this article are translated and summarized from the Japanese content of the publication.

Abstract

While conducting Reef Check, a global coral reef monitoring program, in Kushimoto, which is located in a non-reef area at a high latitude (33oN, 135oE), we supplemented many local species with the world standard as survey targets. In addition, we set a new objective for the survey to detect global warming through changes in marine fauna. The survey was conducted over a 25-year period from 2000 to 2024, basically following the Reef Check methodology. The survey results showed a significant decline in native tropical species. Furthermore, changes in marine fauna indicative of global warming, such as the decline of temperate species and the increase of non-native tropical species, were hardly detected. These findings were attributed to the fact that the shallow marine communities in Kushimoto are more strongly influenced by the Kuroshio Current than by global warming.

Method

From 2000 to 2024, annual coral reef surveys were conducted around May–June in Kushimoto, Japan, by mixed teams of 3–18 volunteer recreational divers, professional divers, and marine biologists. The surveys followed the standard Reef Check methodology with local adaptations. Two fixed sites at different depths (3 m and 10 m) were established along the northeastern coast of Sō Island (Sōshima), Kushimoto, with a 100-meter transect line laid at each:

  • Fish were surveyed using a 5 m × 5 m × 20 m rectangular prism method,
  • Invertebrates (excluding corals) with a 5 m-wide belt transect, and
  • Corals with a line-intercept method, recording the presence of live coral every 0.5 m to calculate percent cover.

The shallow site featured dense table coral (Acropora hyacinthus), while the deeper site had greater coral species diversity, dominated by Echinophyllia aspera. Target species included both globally standardized Reef Check indicators (specific fish, mollusks, crustaceans, and echinoderms) and locally selected Kushimoto species not overlapping with the global list. To help identify non-native southern species, species-level recording was added for some groups beyond standard Reef Check protocol.

Locally unique species were chosen from commonly observed native species that did not overlap with the global list, including 9 fish species, 3 mollusks, and several echinoderms. To monitor signs of climate change, particularly warming, the study focused on shifts in species distribution—such as declines in temperate species and increases in non-native southern species.

 

Long-term sea surface temperature data (since 1972) and the distance from Cape Shionomisaki to the Kuroshio Current’s axis were analyzed, using historical ocean current charts. A “Kuroshio proximity index” was created to quantify the current’s closeness, weighted by distance, and categorized into levels of strength.

 

Biological and environmental trends were analyzed using linear regression and Spearman’s correlation, excluding rare species (fewer than 50 individuals per site per year) from trend analysis due to low reliability.

Picture Copyrights: ReefCheck Kushimoto Team – View of the survey point:

A, view of the survey point (Soshima) from land.

B, survey scenery.

C, high-density Acropora hyacinthus community at 3 m depth site (2001).

D, sparse coral community at 3 m depth site (2016).

E, coral community at 10 m depth site (2005), devastated by Acansaster cf. solaris the following year.

F, devastated view at 10 m depth site (2016).

Results

The study categorized changes in marine species observed at two depths (3 m and 10 m) into five types based on their abundance and trends.

  • Non-appearance type included species that were not recorded at all and were all non-native southern species.
  • Low-appearance type referred to species with fewer than 50 individuals per site, comprising a mix of temperate (35%), native southern (48%), and non-native southern species (17%).
  • High-appearance with no trend included species with over 50 individuals but no clear increase or decrease; most were native southern species, with a few temperate ones.
  • High-appearance with increasing trend included two species—Gingatakahamagai and Nisekuronamako—that showed rapid growth in recent years, though Nisekuronamako declined sharply in 2024.
  • Lastly, high-appearance with decreasing trend included a variety of species such as butterflyfish, clownfish, and sea urchins that showed notable declines, suggesting possible impacts from environmental changes like ocean warming. Coral data were analyzed separately due to different measurement units.

Categories details

No appearance species at both 3 and 10m.

  • Grunt,
  • Barramundi/humpback grouper,
  • Green humphead parrotfish,
  • Humphead wrasse,
  • Tridacna family,
  • Thrush shrimp,
  • White spin sea urchin,
  • Pipe sea urching

Low appearance species, at 3m

  • Threadfin butterflyfish

  • Blue-lined snapper

  • Red-spotted grouper

  • Undulated moray

  • Slipper lobster

  • Spiny lobster

  • Red giant sea cucumber

  • Brown chromis

  • Crown-of-thorns starfish

  • Brown sea cucumber genus

  • Rapa whelk

  • Fairy wrasses

  • Moray eel

  • Juvenile moray eel

  • Black sea cucumber

  • Parrotfish

  • Rockfish

  • Collector urchin

  • Lollyfish

At 10m

  • Threadfin butterflyfish

  • Slipper lobster

  • Red giant sea cucumber

  • Undulated moray

  • Rapa whelk

  • Brown sea cucumber genus

  • Triton trumpet

  • Red-spotted grouper

  • Grunt / Sweetlips

  • Crown-of-thorns starfish

  • Juvenile moray eel

  • Moray eel

  • Brown chromis

  • Banded coral shrimp

  • Parrotfish

  • Rockfish

High appearance species, with no trends

At 3m

  • Thunder wrasse

  • Black-axil cardinalfish

At 10m

  • Rainbow wrasse

  • Thunder wrasse

  • Whipfin wrasse

  • Bluestreak cleaner wrasse

  • Blue damselfish

  • Nagasaki damselfish

  • Black-axil cardinalfish

  • Silver-lip pearl oyster

  • Long-spined sea urchin

  • Black sea cucumber

High appearance species, with increasing trends

At 3m

    • Silver-mouth clam

At 10m

  • False black sea cucumber

High appearance species, with decreasing trends

At 3m

  • Butterflyfish

  • Wrasse (Nishikibera)

  • Cleaner wrasse

  • Clownfish

  • Sapphire damselfish

  • Nagasaki damselfish

  • Variegated top shell

  • Crimson spindle shell

  • Diadema urchins

  • Echinometra urchins

At 10m

    • Butterflyfish

    • Clownfish

    • Variegated top shell

    • Crimson spindle shell

    • Echinometra urchin